{"id":2990,"date":"2022-05-05T15:04:46","date_gmt":"2022-05-05T13:04:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ogbl.lu\/communiques\/inflation-au-luxembourg-les-nouvelles-previsions-du-statec-confortent-la-position-de-logbl"},"modified":"2023-06-19T14:31:05","modified_gmt":"2023-06-19T12:31:05","slug":"inflation-au-luxembourg-les-nouvelles-previsions-du-statec-confortent-la-position-de-logbl","status":"publish","type":"communiques","link":"https:\/\/www.ogbl.lu\/en\/communique\/inflation-au-luxembourg-les-nouvelles-previsions-du-statec-confortent-la-position-de-logbl\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation au Luxembourg: les nouvelles pr\u00e9visions du Statec confortent la position de l\u2019OGBL"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>

Le Statec vient de r\u00e9viser \u00e0 la hausse ses pr\u00e9visions concernant l\u2019inflation au Luxembourg. L\u2019administration, plac\u00e9e directement sous l\u2019autorit\u00e9 du minist\u00e8re de l’\u00c9conomie, annonce d\u00e9sormais une inflation de 5,8% pour 2022 et de 2,8% pour 2023 (au lieu des 4,4% pour 2022 et 1,3% pour 2023 annonc\u00e9s encore en f\u00e9vrier). Ces chiffres viennent confirmer une tendance qui \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9visible depuis plus d\u2019un mois et confortent encore davantage la position de l\u2019OGBL et sa d\u00e9cision lors de la derni\u00e8re tripartite.<\/p>\n

L\u2019OGBL tient \u00e0 rappeler que le soi-disant \u00abaccord tripartite\u00bb qu\u2019il a refus\u00e9 de signer, pr\u00e9voit une manipulation massive de l\u2019index allant jusqu\u2019en 2024. Celui-ci comprend en effet, en plus du report \u00e0 avril 2023 de la prochaine tranche indiciaire (d\u2019ao\u00fbt? de juillet? de juin?), de retarder \u00e9galement \u00e0 chaque fois d\u2019au moins un an d\u2019\u00e9ventuels d\u00e9clenchements suppl\u00e9mentaires de l\u2019index qui pourraient encore advenir en 2022 et 2023.<\/p>\n

Au regard des nouvelles pr\u00e9visions concernant l\u2019inflation et contrairement donc \u00e0 ce que le gouvernement, en s\u2019appuyant sur les analyses du Statec, assurait jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, \u00e9galement lors des n\u00e9gociations tripartites, la probabilit\u00e9 devient d\u00e9sormais de plus en plus grande que des tranches d\u2019index suppl\u00e9mentaires soient dues en 2022 et 2023. Il devient donc aussi de plus en plus vraisemblable qu\u2019une ou m\u00eame plusieurs tranches soient d\u00e9finitivement perdues. En effet, sachant que la manipulation de l\u2019index doit s\u2019achever au 1er<\/sup> avril 2024, il est difficilement concevable que les entreprises versent alors l\u2019ensemble des tranches report\u00e9es en m\u00eame temps (= augmentation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale des salaires de l\u2019ordre de 5-7,5% voire 10% au 1er<\/sup> avril: serait-ce un poisson d\u2019avril\u00a0?).<\/p>\n

Concernant ensuite plus particuli\u00e8rement l\u2019inflation enregistr\u00e9e au mois d\u2019avril 2022, il est surprenant de constater que le Statec reprend \u00e0 son compte, dans sa derni\u00e8re publication, le mythe de l\u2019autoallumage des prix d\u00fb \u00e0 l\u2019index, alors que dans d\u2019autres \u00e9tudes, par le pass\u00e9, ce m\u00eame Statec a d\u00e9montr\u00e9 que son effet restait tr\u00e8s limit\u00e9 (autour de 0,2%). Par ailleurs, si l\u2019index boostait v\u00e9ritablement l\u2019inflation comme le pr\u00e9tend ce mythe, l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019inflation devrait \u00eatre au Luxembourg significativement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que dans les autres pays europ\u00e9ens. Ce qui n\u2019est absolument pas le cas: ni \u00e0 moyen et long terme, ni pour le mois d\u2019avril dernier (l\u2019Allemagne par exemple, qui ne dispose pas de syst\u00e8me d\u2019indexation, a connu au mois d\u2019avril exactement le m\u00eame taux d\u2019inflation que le Luxembourg: 0,8%).<\/p>\n

Dans ce contexte, appara\u00eet \u00e9galement un paradoxe. Le Statec annonce d\u00e9sormais en effet que l\u2019inflation en 2022 et 2023 sera sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 ses projections initiales faites en f\u00e9vrier. Or, suivant le mythe de l\u2019autoallumage des prix d\u00fb \u00e0 l\u2019index, le retardement d\u2019une voire de plusieurs tranches indiciaires ne devrait-il pas alors ralentir au contraire l\u2019inflation?<\/p>\n

Enfin, l\u2019OGBL constate que l\u2019une des plus fortes augmentations des prix, survenues au mois d\u2019avril, concerne les maisons de soins\u00a0(+2%). L\u2019OGBL tient \u00e0 souligner ici que lors de la r\u00e9cente tripartite, il a demand\u00e9 explicitement \u00e0 ce que les prix des maisons de soins soient plafonn\u00e9s. Il s\u2019est malheureusement heurt\u00e9 \u00e0 un refus cat\u00e9gorique du gouvernement sur ce point.<\/p>\n

Pour l\u2019OGBL, la manipulation pr\u00e9vue de l\u2019index constitue une attaque frontale sur les droits des salari\u00e9s et l\u2019OGBL continuera \u00e0 lutter jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce que le gouvernement restaure enfin le m\u00e9canisme d\u2019adaptation des salaires et des pensions \u00e0 l\u2019inflation, l\u2019index.<\/p>\n

Communiqu\u00e9 par l\u2019OGBL
\nle 5 mai 2022<\/b><\/p>\n

\n

>> Inflation in Luxembourg: new Statec forecasts support OGBL\u2019s position (PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n

>> Infla\u00e7\u00e3o no Luxemburgo: as novas previs\u00f5es do Statec confortam a posi\u00e7\u00e3o da OGBL (PDF)<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3219,"template":"","categorie_communiques":[41],"syndicat":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nInflation au Luxembourg: les nouvelles pr\u00e9visions du Statec confortent la position de l\u2019OGBL - OGBL<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ogbl.lu\/communique\/inflation-au-luxembourg-les-nouvelles-previsions-du-statec-confortent-la-position-de-logbl\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"[:fr]Inflation au Luxembourg: les nouvelles pr\u00e9visions du Statec confortent la position de l\u2019OGBL[:de]Inflation in Luxemburg: Neue Statec-Prognose best\u00e4tigt die Position des OGBL[:en]Inflation au Luxembourg: les nouvelles pr\u00e9visions du Statec confortent la position de l\u2019OGBL[:] - OGBL\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le Statec vient de r\u00e9viser \u00e0 la hausse ses pr\u00e9visions concernant l\u2019inflation au Luxembourg. 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